Let me make it clear up entrance — I imagine the New York Instances is reporting precisely what its sources advised the three reporters in right now’s gorgeous article, Putin Quietly Signals He Is Open to a Cease-Fire in Ukraine. The piece, reported by Anton Troianovski, Adam Entous and Julian E. Barnes, claims that the general public bravado of Putin is a sham and that he’s utilizing again channels to barter an finish to the conflict in Ukraine. That is nonsense. I’ll clarify why.
This paragraph from the piece is an enormous crimson flag that the “sources” spinning this story are engaged in an data warfare marketing campaign:
Mr. Putin has been signaling via intermediaries since at the least September that he’s open to a cease-fire that freezes the preventing alongside the present strains, far wanting his ambitions to dominate Ukraine, two former senior Russian officers near the Kremlin and American and worldwide officers who’ve obtained the message from Mr. Putin’s envoys say.
Let’s begin with the primary falsehood — that Putin is prepared to sacrifice his “ambitions to dominate Ukraine.” From the outset of the Particular Army Operation President Putin has been concise and constant — demilitarize and de-nazify Ukraine. Professional-Ukrainian analysts within the West proceed to insist, falsely, that Putin wished to seize Kiev however failed in March 2022 and is, or was, intent on conquering all of Ukraine. That is sheer Western propaganda.
The sources for this drivel are “two former Russian officers near the Kremlin” and unnamed American and “worldwide officers”. I’m prepared to guess a Christmas pudding that these officers are Brits. The information supplied by the previous Russian officers is completely suspect. How do I do know? I had a dialog two weeks in the past whereas in Moscow with a really senior Russian official who attends conferences within the Kremlin. He introduced a really totally different message. Particularly, this official expressed alarm over the dearth of substantive diplomatic contacts with Washington and emphasised that U.S. coverage appears devoted to sabotaging any cheap path for negotiations. Let me put it this fashion — the one that conveyed these considerations can be proper in the midst of any diplomatic contacts with the US.
Alastair Crooke, who was with me in Moscow, supplied an excellent summary of what we heard:
U.S.-Russia relations have touched rock-bottom; it’s worse even than imagined. In discourse with senior Russian officers, it’s evident that the U.S. treats the previous as clear enemies. To realize a flavour, it’s as if a senior Russian official had been to ask: “What’s it you need from me?”. The reply would possibly come: “I want you’d die”.
The inherent pressure and lack of real alternate is worse than through the Chilly Battle when channels of communication did keep open. This lacuna is compounded by the absence of political nous amongst European political leaders, with whom grounded dialogue has not proved potential.
Russian officers recognise the dangers to this example. They’re at a loss nonetheless on easy methods to appropriate it. The tenor of discourse too, has slid from outright hostility towards pettiness: The U.S., for instance, would possibly block staff from getting into the Russian mission on the UN to restore damaged home windows. Moscow then — reluctantly — finds itself with little various however to reply in a equally petty vein — and so the connection spirals down.
So what’s the goal of this NY Instances article? I imagine we will discover the reason in a current column by Gideon Rachman of the Financial Times. He wrote:
One various to a proper settlement between Russia and Ukraine is perhaps a de facto freezing of the battle. On this state of affairs, Ukraine would transfer right into a primarily defensive posture and maintain off additional Russian advances. The preventing would by no means cease fully — however it will dwindle.
An intermediate state of affairs — someplace between a frozen battle and a proper peace treaty — can be an armistice. The 2 sides would agree solely on a cessation of hostilities, with out settling any of the underlying political points. The mannequin right here can be the top of the Korean conflict and the division of the peninsula into North and South Korea. . . .
Even a few of Ukraine’s most ardent western supporters are actually speaking concerning the want for Kyiv to simply accept a frozen battle and declare victory. “Now we have to flip the narrative and say that Putin has failed,” says one former US official.
Said merely — the NY Instances piece is meant to flip the narrative and supply the West with an excuse to exit from Ukraine. Putin and his authorities haven’t any incentive to make concessions to Ukraine or the US or NATO. Russia is successful the conflict and attriting the Ukrainian navy machine and troop power. Even many key Ukrainian officers are admitting that the chances of them defeating Russia are zero.
One other goal of this text is to sow distrust and doubt amongst Russian officers and the Russian folks about Vladimir Putin. With the failure of the Ukrainian counter offensive the Russians are extra dedicated than ever to ending off the Ukrainian navy and its NATO allies. If Putin agreed to barter an finish to the Particular Army Operation earlier than demilitarizing Ukraine, his political standing would crash. Russians are absolutely awake to the fact that the West is a malevolent drive eager on destroying Russia and absolutely assist defeating Ukraine and, by proxy, NATO. The very last thing that Vladimir Putin and his authorities need to do is give the West the reward of halting the navy operation earlier than the duty of eviscerating the Ukrainian navy functionality.