Daniel Kelly spent 4 years in professional scouting with the New York Jets. He’s the printed creator of the e book “No matter It Takes,” the story of a fan making it into the NFL.
It wasn’t way back that I slapped the term “overrated” on Washington Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. However, hey, even scouts are allowed to vary their minds — offered their takes are supported by the sport movie.
After evaluating three of Penix’s video games in 2021, 9 in 2022 and each snap in 2023 — 25 video games complete — it is clear he has improved considerably from after I first scouted him. Penix — who transferred in 2021 to Washington after 4 seasons and 21 video games at Indiana — has shot up my draft board from a sixth-rounder to a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He jogs my memory of one other left-handed QB, three-time Professional Bowler QB Mark Brunell, who performed 17 seasons within the NFL.
Let’s get into the nitty-gritty.
Within the 2022 sport movie, Penix displayed erratic downfield ball placement and poor ball safety. In 2023, nonetheless, he improved in each areas, however his completion proportion elevated modestly, from 65.3% in 2022 to 65.9% this season. (His completion proportion was solely 59.4% at Indiana.)
The primary enchancment I observed, although, over 2022 is how he went by his progressions significantly better. Defensive backs, subsequently, had much less time in 2023 to anticipate a go, so Penix’s go breakups (PBUs) dropped from a mean of three.56 per sport to 1.38, per my charting.
Similar to in 2022, nonetheless, Penix had accuracy inconsistencies in 2023, which I tie to his unorthodox throwing mechanics and damage historical past. He typically depends on his robust left arm reasonably than his decrease physique when throwing. Penix generally goals and steers the ball greater than relying on conventional footwork to drive the ball. This causes his passes to sail excessive.
The rationale for this may in all probability be traced to the two torn ACLs Penix suffered at Indiana — one in 2018 and one other in 2020. On social media, I’ve harped concerning the significance of NFL groups contemplating the damage historical past of Penix, who additionally suffered season-ending accidents at Indiana to his non-throwing shoulder in 2019 and throwing shoulder in 2021.
ESPN NFL Draft analyst Jordan Reid, nonetheless, opened my eyes to Penix’s damage historical past.
“Medicals might be a really essential a part of his analysis,” he replied to me on X, “however at what level will we give him credit score for staying wholesome occurring two years now and overcoming these accidents?”
Touche.
The one different knock I’ve on Penix is his inconsistency in beating the blitz. In addition to that, it was evident in 2023 that he has the abilities to justify my first-round grade. This is what else I like about Penix, who completed second within the Heisman Trophy voting to LSU QB Jayden Daniels. (Learn my scouting report of Daniels here).