The headline on this morning’s Kommersant newspaper captured the drama.
“Vladimir Putin attracts his pink line.”
Will the West cross it? And, if it does, how will Russia reply?
Talking in St Petersburg, President Putin despatched a transparent warning to the West: don’t permit Ukraine to make use of your long-range missiles to strike Russian territory.
Moscow, he stated, would view that because the “direct participation” of Nato international locations within the conflict in Ukraine.
“It will considerably change the very essence, the character of the battle,” the Kremlin chief continued.
“This may imply that Nato international locations, the USA and European states, are combating with Russia.”
He claimed that, for missile launches into Russia, Ukraine would require information from Western satellites and that solely servicemen from Nato member states would have the ability to “enter flight missions into these missile programs”.
Russia has drawn pink traces earlier than. And seen them crossed earlier than.
On 24 February 2022, when he introduced the beginning of his “particular navy operation” – the full-scale invasion of Ukraine – President Putin issued a warning to “those that could also be tempted to intrude from the surface”.
“Irrespective of who tries to face in our approach or create threats for our nation and our individuals, they have to know that Russia will reply instantly,” the Kremlin chief had declared.
“And the results can be reminiscent of you may have by no means seen in your complete historical past.”
Western leaders ignored what was extensively interpreted on the time as nuclear sabre-rattling. The West has since supplied Ukraine with tanks, superior missile programs and, most lately, F-16 American fighter jets.
This yr Russia has already accused Ukraine of utilizing American long-range ATACMS missiles to focus on Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Russia.
What’s extra, during the last two years, Russian officers and the state media right here have on many events accused the West of “combating Russia” or launching “a conflict” on Russia. Although it was Russia that invaded Ukraine.
However from the tone of President Putin’s newest remarks, it’s clear he considers that the focusing on of internationally recognised Russian territory with Western missile programs would take the battle to a brand new degree.
What he didn’t clarify yesterday is how Moscow would reply.
“We’ll take corresponding selections primarily based on the threats to us that can be created,” Vladimir Putin stated.
On Friday, Russia withdrew the accreditation of six British diplomats, accusing them of “subversive actions” and threatening Russia’s safety.
However Putin’s potential response is far broader. He provided some clues again in June.
At a gathering with the heads of worldwide information businesses, he was requested: how would Russia react if Ukraine was given the chance to hit targets on Russian territory with weapons equipped by Europe?
“First, we’ll, in fact, enhance our air defence programs. We can be destroying their missiles,” President Putin replied.
“Second, we consider that if somebody is pondering it’s attainable to produce such weapons to a conflict zone to strike our territory and create issues for us, why can’t we provide our weapons of the identical class to these areas all over the world the place they’ll goal delicate amenities of the international locations which are doing this to Russia?”
In different phrases, arming Western adversaries to strike Western targets overseas is one thing that Moscow has been contemplating.
Earlier this month, Russia’s deputy international minister, Sergei Ryabkov, introduced that Russia was set to revise its nuclear doctrine: the doc that lays out underneath what circumstances Moscow might think about using nuclear weapons.
He steered that the choice to revise the doctrine was “linked with the escalation course of [Russia’s] Western adversaries”.
In the meantime, Sir Keir Starmer is in Washington for talks with President Biden. Among the many points the 2 leaders are anticipated to debate is the query of Ukraine and long-range missiles.
“Russia began this battle. Russia illegally invaded Ukraine,” Sir Keir stated on his approach to Washington. “Russia can finish this battle right away.”
Western leaders might want to resolve which they take into account higher: the danger of escalation of this battle, or the necessity to elevate restrictions on Ukraine’s use of western missiles.