Abdel Fattah el-Sisi returned as president of Egypt within the election held on the finish of 2023, successful a 3rd time period with 89.6 % of the votes in favour of the incumbent.
That el-Sisi was going to safe a victory within the December ballot was by no means actually doubtful, in response to analysts and Egypt watchers.
Second-place candidate Hazem Omar, of the Individuals’s Republican Get together, solely managed 4.05 % of the vote, with the third-place candidate coming in with an identical determine. El-Sisi’s most critical challenger, former Member of Parliament Ahmed al-Tantawy, in addition to chair of the Dostour Get together, Gameela Ismail, each withdrew after failing to safe the endorsements wanted to run.
Ismail withdrew because of what her supporters claimed was a divided opposition, and al-Tantawy due to what he mentioned was the intimidation of his supporters. Egypt’s Nationwide Election Authority said al-Tantawy’s accusations were baseless.
“Individuals selected President el-Sisi due to his expertise in overcoming safety challenges,” political analyst Gamal Abdel-Gawwad subsequently wrote in state-owned newspaper Al Ahram Weekly.
“In spite of everything, he was a former minister of defence and head of army intelligence.”
Voter turnout
Whereas victory could have been anticipated, addressing low voter turnout was a precedence for el-Sisi.
In 2014, solely 47.5 % of the inhabitants turned out to vote, 4 years later, solely 41.5 % made it to the polling station, probably undermining the affect of el-Sisi’s victories.
This 12 months’s last determine of 66 %, outstanding given the absence of alternate options, didn’t come about by chance or as a result of individuals had been anxious to make their voices heard concerning the crushing financial disaster.
Whereas el-Sisi has by no means aligned himself with a political social gathering, in recent times the Mustaqbal Watan Get together has more and more positioned itself as his closest political ally, utilizing its dramatic 2020 landslide win to exhibit unflagging help for the president.
Likewise, different pro-regime events, reminiscent of Homeland Defenders Get together and the Republican Individuals’s Get together seem to have been embraced, being inspired to wave the flag and get the vote out within the current ballot.
“The election was in some methods a check for whether or not the now-revamped political machine the regime has been constructing for years will be capable of ship what the Sisi regime couldn’t ship in prior electoral contests by itself,” Hesham Sallam of Stanford College mentioned in emailed feedback concerning the elevated turnout.
“For the reason that 2020 [legislative] election, Mustaqbal Watan has been caught on this ‘political friend-zone’ with Sisi, the place he’s clearly counting on it as his major political arm however will nonetheless not recognise it as his official ruling social gathering.
“The hope is that this election was a chance for the social gathering to show that it’s worthy of this recognition and that it ought to not be simply an ‘performing ruling social gathering’,” Sallam wrote, including that Mustaqbal Watan would all the time must adjust to el-Sisi’s ambitions and elegance of rule.
“The regime-allied media went past the decision of responsibility in propping up Hazem Omar’s picture as a reputable challenger and another political voice, which has made observers speculate whether or not he’s being groomed to play a much bigger position within the regime’s political theatrics within the coming years,” he mentioned.
Al Jazeera reached out to Hazem Omar on the factors raised by Sallam however has acquired no response by time of publication.
The economic system
Electoral achievements however, Egypt’s economic system stays on life help. Whereas the regime continues to plough on with mega tasks, reminiscent of developing a brand new capital, public debt continues to mount.
Throughout the nation, value rises on subsidised items have pushed the price of residing past the attain of many. The Egyptian pound’s precipitous fall towards the greenback has led to elevated competitors for the arduous foreign money wanted to pay for overseas items and a subsequent shortfall in imports.
“Egypt is presently enduring its most extreme financial disaster because the 2011 revolution, characterised by a weak foreign money, hovering inflation and capital flight, all indicators of a deepening debt disaster,” Saif Islam, an affiliate in Strategic Intelligence with threat consultancy agency S-RM, mentioned in emailed feedback.
“These macroeconomic challenges have appreciable repercussions for odd Egyptians, together with elevated poverty and unemployment. These socio-economic challenges will doubtless exacerbate within the coming 12 months, particularly in mild of the anticipated additional devaluation of the Egyptian pound,” he wrote.
New loans, such because the mooted injection of an additional $5bn from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates into the central financial institution, in addition to the potential growth of the $3bn mortgage from the Worldwide Financial Fund, had been extra a mirrored image of Egypt’s strategic significance – reaffirmed by the outbreak of battle in Gaza – moderately than an enterprise on el-Sisi’s half to decide to any recent coverage route, Islam advised.
“A good portion of any new loans will most likely be allotted in direction of servicing Egypt’s substantial money owed. The nation is obligated to pay $29.2bn in exterior debt service in 2024, which underscores the vital position of latest loans in assembly debt obligations,” he mentioned.
“There was a lot hypothesis that Cairo may default on a few of their worldwide debt earlier than too lengthy,” Dr HA Hellyer, a nonresident scholar at Carnegie mentioned, referring to the monetary strains the nation is experiencing, “however few anticipate that can end in a lot political change domestically.
“It’s additionally clear that, for a lot of the worldwide group, Egypt is deeply essential because of its inhabitants measurement and its geopolitical place, particularly as a result of scenario in Gaza and Sudan. Nobody desires Egypt to fail, quite the opposite.”
