Dhaka, Bangladesh – Hasanul Islam Ador, an elected consultant in a rural space in southern Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar district, was shocked when a gaggle of officers in plain garments barged into his dwelling final week.
Ador mentioned the officers threatened him, saying he ought to cease campaigning for Zafar Ahmed, an unbiased candidate for the nationwide election to be held on Sunday.
Ahmed is a present member of parliament representing Cox’s Bazar for the ruling Awami League (AL) social gathering, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
When Ahmed did not safe his social gathering’s nomination for this yr’s election, he was requested by the social gathering management to run as an unbiased contender – one in all what analysts and critics say are a whole bunch of so-called “dummy” candidates propped by the social gathering to make the election look free and truthful.
Hasina, 76, has been in energy for 15 straight years – the longest-serving chief in Bangladesh’s historical past.
Her tenure has been marked by allegations of authoritarian rule, concentrating on of the opposition, the suppression of individuals’s rights, and large-scale vote rigging in elections held to maintain her in energy.
As she seeks a file fourth time period in Sunday’s vote, the principle opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Social gathering (BNP), led by ailing former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, has decided to boycott the vote, because it did in 2014.
Zia, 78, was jailed for greater than two years over corruption fees and was moved to deal with arrest over well being issues in 2020. She denies the allegation, saying her conviction was politically motivated.
The BNP says it doesn’t have any confidence in Hasina presiding over a free and truthful election. It demanded Hasina step all the way down to make means for a caretaker authorities to organise the vote.
However the demand was met with a extreme authorities crackdown, which noticed tens of 1000’s of BNP members arrested and not less than 11 of them killed by safety forces throughout avenue protests, elevating issues over legitimate elections within the garments hub of the world.
In September, the USA, the highest purchaser of Bangladeshi clothes, mentioned it was imposing a visa ban on the nation’s officers who undermine the democratic election course of.
Two months later, Human Rights Watch condemned the arrests of opposition members and mentioned “the federal government’s autocratic crackdown will jeopardise future financial cooperation” with different nations.
‘Mockery of our democracy’
For the reason that opposition’s boycott name, Hasina’s social gathering had been scrambling to subject unbiased – or “dummy” – candidates to make the election look truthful.
The “aggressive make-up”, as analysts name the transfer, noticed the Awami League fielding candidates like Ahmed within the fray, however on the similar time, making certain the poll doesn’t throw up any surprises for the social gathering.
To make sure the outcomes are in favour of the ruling social gathering, the federal government is allegedly utilizing regulation enforcement equipment and intelligence businesses to intimidate and threaten unbiased candidates.
“The individuals who barged into my dwelling have been from an intelligence company,” Ador instructed Al Jazeera. “They got here to my home and threatened me to cease campaigning for Ahmed and search votes for a specific candidate.”
Ador and greater than a dozen different native representatives in Ahmed’s constituency wrote a letter to the Bangladesh Election Fee, saying “an intelligence company had put immense strain and threatened them” to work for an Awami League candidate.
The fee acknowledged receiving such a letter to Al Jazeera, with election officers saying they have been “critically wanting into the criticism”.
With out the principle political opposition contesting, there may be little uncertainty as to what the outcomes of the Sunday vote might be.
“This election is a charade,” distinguished Bangladeshi rights activist Shahidul Alam instructed Al Jazeera. “It’s a mockery of our democracy – no matter is left of it.”
The BNP has not solely boycotted the election however has additionally introduced a non-cooperation motion, asking folks to not vote on Sunday.
In consequence, the ruling Awami League’s fundamental concern for the time being is to make sure a “affordable” voter turnout, based on its official Bahauddin Nasim. To try this, the social gathering has allegedly resorted to “undue” measures.
In lots of constituencies, members of the ruling social gathering have been accused of threatening to strip folks of the federal government’s social advantages schemes in the event that they fail to look in polling cubicles on election day.
Practically 13 million folks, belonging to essentially the most weak teams, obtain direct social advantages from the federal government, based on the finance ministry’s information. Furthermore, getting on the federal government checklist of beneficiaries is a course of involving 473 elected officers, almost all of them belonging to the Awami League.
Movies, unverified by Al Jazeera, are viral on Bangladeshi social media, purportedly exhibiting ruling social gathering officers threatening the voters.
Rumeen Farhana, the BNP’s worldwide affairs secretary, instructed Al Jazeera that collaborating in an election, figuring out will probably be rigged, was “suicidal and a betrayal to the 1000’s who have been damage, detained, tortured, or killed for democracy and free speech”.
“Folks of this nation will bear in mind this election as essentially the most absurd and illegitimate one in its historical past,” she mentioned.
‘Technique of the autocrats’
Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute on the Wilson Heart in the USA, mentioned the BNP boycott does the Awami League a “huge favour by making it tougher for Western nations to conclude that the election is fraudulent”.
“If the Awami League wins 95 p.c of the vote, one can’t accuse the social gathering of stealing votes as a result of it can primarily be working towards itself,” Kugelman instructed Al Jazeera.
He mentioned the sample of occasions resulting in the BNP’s determination to boycott needs to be of concern to the West.
“Arrests, jailings, a broader crackdown on dissent, and particularly the Awami League’s refusal to launch prime BNP leaders from jail because the election drew nearer – all of this may form the pondering of Washington and different capitals post-election,” he mentioned.
Mohammad A Arafat, Awami League candidate from capital Dhaka, mentioned he was “baffled by the notion that the winner of this election won’t get legitimacy from the Western nations”.
“We did no matter we might. We strengthened our Election Fee and created a stage taking part in subject for all political events. If BNP didn’t wish to be part of, it’s their selection. Many events have taken half within the election,” he instructed Al Jazeera.
Ali Riaz, distinguished professor of politics and authorities on the Illinois State College within the US, thinks the BNP’s absence from the vote was at all times essentially the most most popular possibility for the Awami League.
“Forcing the principle opposition out of the election course of is a method autocrats world wide are inclined to choose,” he instructed Al Jazeera.
Riaz mentioned the upcoming vote on Sunday doesn’t meet the “fundamental commonplace of an election”.
“Your entire train seems to be like a stage-managed present to offer a veneer of authorized legitimacy which is in any other case simply dividing the parliamentary seats amongst allies,” he mentioned. “I don’t suppose the winner will acquire legitimacy from the Western nations.”
Kugelman, nonetheless, mentioned he didn’t count on the Western capitals to chop ties with Dhaka.
“That will be rash, to not point out imprudent, particularly given the shut industrial ties they’ve with Bangladesh and the perceived strategic significance of Bangladesh within the context of the ability competitors within the Indo-Pacific,” he mentioned.
“However I do suppose if Washington and different Western capitals conclude the election isn’t credible – and it’s laborious to evaluate it as credible when the principle opposition social gathering sits it out – there’s a likelihood that they might evaluate future relations with Dhaka, with downgrading of ties a chance.”
