COMMENT: Marty, you might be by far the best long-term forecaster ever. I labored on the ground in 2007 when the market crashed on the precise day of your ECM. Everybody referred to as it Armstrong’s Revenge. That was the very day of the excessive within the Shiller Actual Property Index for 2007. I do know you say the brief time period is noise, and you aren’t recognized for short-term day-to-day forecasts, which you keep away from. I put my home up on the market and simply offered it primarily based in your Might third submit the place you stated, “Residence costs within the US are close to all-time highs. ” The realtor informed me that gross sales have began to say no, and I offered the excessive.
Wonderful.
Thanks
Mike
REPLY: There may be at all times a time to purchase and a time to promote. The short-term is simply noise. If the Dow or Gold rallies for 2 weeks after which declines, that doesn’t alter the long-term course till we’ve got reached a turning level. However folks wish to see you as a forecaster every day, which is nonsense. The extra somebody trades, the decrease their efficiency, and the dangers enhance exponentially. I’ve finished the long-term as a result of we have been the biggest institutional adviser. They don’t seem to be day merchants.
Sure, the 2007 excessive on the Shiller Index was the exact day of the Financial Confidence Mannequin. To date, all the indications have confirmed that we should always have a recessionary development into 2028 with this flip within the mannequin on this wave. With the prospect of conflict on the horizon, folks will contract of their spending due to uncertainty.
We’ve got gone by way of a interval of a increase, however with conflict on the horizon, folks will pull again on their spending, and we’ll usually enter a recession from Might 2024 into August 2028. The shift from the Blue to the Pink states remains to be occurring. So, actual property within the blue states will fall in worth quickly. The decline will range from place to put.
Now we should always enter a BUYER’S market whereas from 2020-2024 was a SELLER’S Market.