The C.I.A. is accumulating data on senior Hamas leaders and the situation of hostages in Gaza, and is offering that intelligence to Israel because it carries out its battle within the enclave, in response to U.S. officers.
A brand new process pressure assembled within the days after the Hamas-led Oct. 7 terror assaults on Israel, by which 1,200 individuals have been killed and a few 240 taken hostage again in Gaza, has uncovered data on Hamas’s high leaders, in response to U.S. officers who spoke on situation of anonymity to debate delicate intelligence assessments.
Instantly after the Oct. 7 assault, Jake Sullivan, the nationwide safety adviser, despatched a memo to the intelligence businesses and Protection Division ordering the duty pressure’s creation and directing elevated intelligence assortment on Hamas’ management, officers mentioned.
The institution of the duty pressure has not created any new authorized authorities, however the White Home raised the precedence of accumulating intelligence on Hamas.
It’s not clear how precious the data has been to Israel, although not one of the most senior leaders of Hamas has been captured or killed. The US shouldn’t be offering Israel with intelligence on low or midlevel Hamas operatives.
Israel had estimated earlier than Oct. 7 that Hamas had 20,000 to 25,000 fighters. By the tip of 2023, Israel had informed American officers they believed they’d killed roughly a 3rd of that pressure.
Some American officers consider concentrating on low-level Hamas members is misguided as a result of they are often simply changed and due to the unwarranted danger to civilians. They’ve additionally mentioned the Israeli navy bombing marketing campaign in Gaza — which according to Gaza’s Health Ministry has killed some 23,000 Palestinians, principally civilians — may find yourself replenishing Hamas’s bench of fighters.
However eliminating Hamas’s strategic navy management is one other matter. Israel would rating a significant victory if it kills or captures Yahya Sinwar, believed to be an architect of the Oct. 7 assault, or Mohammed Deif, the commander of Hamas’s navy wing. Such an operational success would probably give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu extra latitude with the Israeli public to wind down the navy marketing campaign in Gaza.
Focusing on Mr. Sinwar shouldn’t be merely a matter of discovering him. Mr. Sinwar is believed to be hiding within the deepest a part of the tunnel community below Khan Younis in southern Gaza, in response to U.S. officers. However he’s additionally believed to be surrounded by hostages and utilizing them as human shields, vastly complicating a navy operation to seize or kill him.
The US offered no intelligence for Israel’s Jan. 2 strike in a Beirut suburb that killed Saleh al-Arouri, a deputy Hamas chief, U.S. officers mentioned. That strike relied on data collected by Israel on Mr. al-Arouri’s location.
The US has additionally stepped up assortment on Hamas with extra drone flights over Gaza and has elevated its efforts to intercept communications amongst Hamas officers.
A spokeswoman for the C.I.A. declined to touch upon the duty pressure or any intelligence offered to Israel.
The creation of the C.I.A. process pressure comes as America’s spy businesses have raised the precedence of intelligence assortment on Hamas.
Earlier than the Oct. 7 assault, Hamas was a degree 4 precedence, that means few assets have been devoted to accumulating intelligence on the group. Since then, the Workplace of the Director of Nationwide Intelligence, which helps oversee intelligence priorities, has raised Hamas to a degree two precedence, in response to U.S. officers. Stage one, on which the overwhelming majority of intelligence assets are expended, is reserved for worldwide adversaries that might pose a extra direct risk to the US, together with China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.
Elevating the precedence degree offers further funding for intelligence assortment and almost definitely will increase the vary and quantity of knowledge that the C.I.A. tries to gather on Hamas, which the US has designated a terror group.
The shift in precedence has additionally opened up new cash for the C.I.A. to develop human sources, in response to present and former officers. However with each bodily entry to and common communication with Gaza extraordinarily tough, it should take time to develop new sources.
The U.S. navy has been pushing Israel to retool its navy marketing campaign to give attention to killing or capturing high leaders, reasonably than the broader strikes which have resulted in enormous numbers of civilian casualties in Gaza. Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the top of U.S. Central Command, has visited Israel at the very least twice since Oct. 7, and different American generals have gone to Israel to advise officers there to undertake a extra focused plan centered on killing senior leaders.
Earlier than Oct. 7, the US usually relied on Israel for accumulating most intelligence on Hamas, in response to U.S. officers.
For Israel, Hamas was a much more essential risk, and due to this fact a high intelligence precedence.
However the Oct. 7 assault demonstrated that Israel’s intelligence assortment on Hamas had vital weaknesses. American officers have additionally raised questions on what Israel shared with the US.
In 2022, Israel collected intelligence that showed Hamas had developed an elaborate plan for a multiwave attack on Israel, code named Jericho Wall. However the data was not shared extensively inside Israel or with the US after some Israeli intelligence officers assessed that the plan was aspirational and that Hamas didn’t have the aptitude of carrying it out on the time.
Finding the hostages, and growing details about their bodily and psychological situations, can also be a precedence of the brand new process pressure. William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, has been working with David Barnea, the chief of Israel’s Mossad spy company, to barter their launch.
In November, 109 hostages have been launched in return for Palestinian prisoners and a pause within the preventing because of U.S., Qatari and Egyptian mediation. About 130 hostages are believed to stay in captivity in Gaza. The US and Israel are hoping for one more alternate, however Hamas has insisted that any additional hostage releases solely be executed in connection with a permanent cease-fire.
The US has not negotiated straight with Hamas. As a substitute Mr. Burns and Mr. Barnea have been talking with Qatari officers, who in flip negotiate with Hamas’s political management. Israel seems to not be concentrating on political leaders of Hamas, who’re essential to the negotiations on hostage releases.
American particular operations forces, which have been in Israel for coaching workouts earlier than Oct. 7, have remained there to work on the hostage challenge.
The F.B.I. and Justice Division have additionally stepped up their efforts in opposition to Hamas by investigating People sending cash to the group.