With a Week 16 loss to the Patriots successfully closing the door on the Broncos’ playoff hopes, the Russell Wilson watch has begun in Denver. As Sean Payton was not with the workforce when it acquired the longtime Seahawks star final 12 months, the 2024 offseason has been seen as a key level on the Broncos’ timeline.
It may additionally quickly be a key chapter in NFL transaction historical past. Sitting at 7-8, the Broncos will bench Wilson. Payton knowledgeable the workforce Jarrett Stidham will begin in Week 17, ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter reports. After the Broncos adopted up a five-game win streak with a 1-3 stretch, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport reported the workforce was contemplating this transfer — one geared toward making certain Wilson stays wholesome earlier than a pivotal offseason bodily.
Whereas Wilson has performed a lot better this season, he has not justified the Broncos’ commerce value. The workforce despatched an eight-asset package deal to Seattle, which included two first-round picks and two second-rounders. That call got here simply after Aaron Rodgers — a multiyear Broncos goal — agreed to a Packers extension. Extra importantly, the extension the Broncos gave Wilson simply earlier than final season creates a fancy scenario for the improved workforce.
The Broncos signed Wilson to a five-year, $245M extension final summer season; that deal got here with $124M totally assured. The workforce had Wilson on a Seahawks-constructed contract ($35M per 12 months) by way of 2024, nevertheless it wanted to beat this year’s extension surge, resulting in the $49M-AAV re-up. That turned out to be the incorrect play, as Wilson — even contemplating this 12 months’s enchancment — has not moved the needle for a Broncos workforce that has not discovered an upper-crust alternative for Peyton Manning.
The Broncos can shield themselves in opposition to a $37M assure (Wilson’s 2025 base wage) vesting in 2024, however the workforce slicing Wilson would create a staggering dead-money complete. Even when the Broncos lower bait with a post-June 1 designation — which might assuredly be the transfer in the event that they transfer on in 2024 — they might tackle $35M in lifeless cash subsequent 12 months. That will method a report in itself, however this transfer would additionally deliver a $49.6M dead-money blow for 2025. Contemplating no single participant has introduced a dead-money hit past $41M, the Broncos can be crusing into uncharted waters — a two-offseason dead-cap complete of $84.6M related to Wilson’s contract — in the event that they lower their prime quarterback subsequent 12 months.
This state of affairs is eerily much like what the Raiders encountered with Derek Carr. As soon as once more, Stidham is the participant who would transfer into the beginning lineup within the occasion of a protection-based benching. Deciding early to bail on the Carr extension that included a February 2023 assure vesting date, the Raiders parked Carr on the bench — although, he left the workforce to keep away from changing into a distraction — forward of Week 17 final season. Stidham began the ultimate two video games, making a QB2 market. The Broncos gave the ex-Patriots draftee a two-year, $10M deal to again up Wilson.
Wilson ranks seventh in passer ranking, throwing 26 landing passes in comparison with simply eight interceptions. However the Broncos haven’t precisely deployed an explosive offense. Wilson’s relative bounce-back effort however, the workforce stays restricted by way of the air. Payton has restrained Wilson to a level, and the Broncos have relied on quick passes or deep pictures to Courtland Sutton throughout their rebound from a 1-5 begin. The 35-year-old passer ranks twenty first in QBR, nevertheless, and new regimes usually tend to tackle large lifeless cash related to gamers introduced in below earlier staffs.
Technically, this isn’t a brand new regime. GM George Paton stays, however it’s extensively assumed Payton is asking the pictures in Denver. Paton, who was in place for the Wilson extension and Nathaniel Hackett‘s one-and-done, has been linked to being on thin ice. A transfer to bench Wilson to guard in opposition to an damage affecting his contract standing could properly precede Paton exiting in 2024.
For Wilson, this represents new territory. Though he submitted an incredibly mediocre season with Hackett, the Broncos didn’t bench him final season. The nine-time Professional Bowler shifting nearer to his Seahawks type below Payton could maintain the Corridor of Fame in play — although, this Denver tenure does inject an fascinating chapter in that regard — however this benching factors to him being out there in 2024. Contemplating this isn’t a tradeable contract, Wilson is almost definitely set to change into a free agent for the primary time.
Wilson’s assure impacts his 2025 standing. On Day 5 of the 2024 league 12 months, a $37M assure vests if he remains on the Broncos’ roster. That quantity — Wilson’s 2025 wage — is assured for damage solely. The workforce seems to be to be selecting a 2024 with out Wilson — and absorbing the seismic dead-money quantity referenced above — slightly than giving the Payton-Wilson pairing a second attempt. The Broncos determine to be available in the market for a brand new quarterback quickly. The workforce’s restoration from its 1-5 begin will make that tougher, as its draft slot has dropped to 14th. And slicing Wilson subsequent 12 months will hamstring the Broncos for the subsequent two offseasons.
If the Broncos had been to go together with Wilson in 2024 and designate him as a post-June 1 lower in 2025, the lifeless cash would reduce — $18M in 2025, $31.2M in ’26 — however there is no such thing as a method of spinning this. The Broncos could not have made a Herschel Walker-caliber mistake, however this commerce producing an extension — one possession helped push upon taking on in the summertime of 2022 — may have longstanding ramifications for the AFC West franchise.
Ought to the Broncos comply with by way of on their now-expected Wilson launch in 2024, it will likely be fascinating to see if a workforce can be prepared to offer one other beginning alternative for the ex-Seattle iron man. Wilson is the one participant in NFL historical past with over 40,000 passing yards and 5,000 speeding yards. After being hesitant to run a lot below Hackett, Wilson has frequently helped the 2023 Broncos by scrambling. Whereas it’s clear Wilson is previous his prime, he has performed a key position within the Broncos’ stunning playoff push — one which Stidham now controls. ESPN’s FPI provides the Broncos only a 5.6% probability to qualify. They are going to quickly start a glance towards the longer term.
