Virtually 23,000 folks – the overwhelming majority Palestinian – have been killed because the unprecedented Hamas assaults in southern Israel on October 7, which launched the Israeli assault on Gaza.
As the tip of 2023 approaches, the Israeli offensive is displaying no indicators of any let-up and the demise toll is definite to rise on each side as preventing continues.
Political makes an attempt at peace have failed.
Israel has said from the outset that its goal is to eradicate Hamas’s navy and governing capabilities. To this finish, it has continued the aerial bombardment and floor invasion of the Gaza Strip nearly with out pause, since October 7.
Whereas Israel admits it has failed on this mission to date, it claims it’s only a query of time earlier than it achieves this purpose. However does the state of affairs on the bottom assist that declare?
The reply is a cautious no.
An in depth and neutral evaluation of varied elements of its efficiency results in the conclusion that to date, Hamas has skilled extra successes than failures – for the next causes.
Hamas continues to exist
The organisation continues to be very a lot alive and kicking. Politically, it’s nonetheless recognised – de facto if not de jure – as the one entity exercising management over what stays of the closely broken civilian constructions within the Gaza Strip.
It’s get together to oblique negotiations which have already managed to supply a one-week-long pause within the assault on Gaza and a restricted alternate of Israeli and Palestinian captives and hostages. So long as it holds on to its remaining hostages, Hamas will proceed to be an inevitable “different facet” with out which no launch of these captives shall be doable.
Israel has repeatedly said that there’s “no place” for Hamas within the post-war civilian constructions of Gaza however has by no means produced any semblance of a concrete, various plan.
Numerous imprecise, unfocused recommendations that the way forward for Gaza could be higher with out Hamas have been floated however no person has produced any coherent suggestion of easy methods to take away Hamas and what to exchange it with.
The US, some Arab states and numerous worldwide organisations have instructed {that a} post-war Gaza needs to be run by Fatah or a pan-Arab power, however have introduced no tangible plans for easy methods to obtain that. For now, this stays wishful pondering. For the predictable future, due to this fact, Hamas is right here to remain.
Hamas stays an efficient navy power The navy wing of Hamas, the Qassam Brigades, has by no means publicly disclosed details about its construction, organisation or numbers.
Some consultants, utilizing open sources and leaked intelligence from Israeli, US, Arab and Russian sources, estimate the Qassam Brigades’ energy at between 30,000 and 45,000 fighters.
Even probably the most cautious of analysts imagine that earlier than the conflict, the power might rely a minimum of 18,000 well-trained, disciplined and ideologically extremely motivated first-line troopers in its ranks, with all the things above that quantity being the second echelon.
Numerous Israeli claims of getting killed as many as 10,000 Hamas fighters are nearly actually exaggerated.
The Qassam Brigades have been taking heavy losses however most of its battalions stay efficient fight items. Institute for the Research of Struggle, an influential and well-informed US suppose tank estimates that out of 26 to 30 battalions of fighters, which have been believed to exist on October 7 – every having 400 to 1,000 males, solely three have been rendered inoperable – or, in civilian parlance, destroyed.
Of the rest, 4 or 5 have been “degraded”, that means that their energy is lowered however they proceed to battle, both alone or by becoming a member of different items.
In a single facet, the Hamas navy wing has proved exceptionally efficient: all items whose commanders have been killed have nonetheless continued preventing beneath their deputies.
Counting on its glorious subject intelligence, Israel has managed to kill a minimum of 5 battalion commanders in focused air raids, with a minimum of six extra dying in battle, together with the commander of the Northern Brigade. But none of these items was rendered “headless” and collapsed, confirming Hamas’s clear capability to plan and practice competent deputies.
Israel has been destroying or blocking tunnel entrances wherever it may discover them however there are clear indicators that Hamas nonetheless maintains sufficient underground services to maneuver forces between entrance traces and sometimes efficiently flank and shock the enemy.
Hamas has assist from different armed factions
Studies from Gaza generally make it seem that the Hamas armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, is doing all of the preventing. Actually, there are not any fewer than 12 completely different armed teams, affiliated with completely different political and ideological blocs. The second-best recognized is Islamic Jihad, however others embrace the Well-liked Resistance Committee and two Fronts for the Liberation of Palestine of just about the identical identify – one calling itself “Well-liked” whereas the opposite is “Democratic”.
In all probability probably the most unlikely to be related to Hamas is the Al-Aqsa Martyr Brigades, the armed wing of its rival, Fatah. Political variations apart, nonetheless, it fights in coordination with and largely beneath the final command of the Qassam Brigades.
Placing all these teams beneath the Hamas umbrella is a realistic answer born out of necessity, but it surely appears to work to the satisfaction of all concerned, with no seen tensions or cracks to date.
There have been no dependable claims of any of this plethora of smaller items caving in beneath strain from Israeli armed forces, disbanding, deserting or collaborating with the enemy. Moreover, it can’t be dominated out that a few of them might merge, a minimum of briefly, into the Qassam Brigades.
The continued co-existence of those armed factions whereas they face the identical menace is doubtless a hit for Hamas.
Hamas has gained recognition within the West Financial institution
Opposite to the predominant Israeli and Western picture of Hamas as unacceptable terrorists and murderers of harmless civilians – a view significantly bolstered after studies of indiscriminate slaughter on October 7 – many Palestinians see it in a distinct mild.
Those that see themselves as victims of Israeli oppression, unequal remedy, lawlessness and discrimination usually idolise Hamas as a fearless defender of Palestinians, and sometimes as the one group doing so. Many younger folks born because the Nineteen Nineties Oslo Accords, which have been meant to supply a two-state answer, admit to being annoyed by the Palestinian authorities’ lack of ability to safe what was agreed, promised and signed in these accords.
This sense of frustration has turn out to be significantly sturdy within the West Financial institution, run by Fatah, which is seen by many younger folks as inefficient, corrupt, incapable and bored with working for the Palestinian trigger.
Growing aggression from unlawful Israeli settlers, who proceed to harass, steal from and inflict violence upon Palestinians within the West Financial institution with impunity, has moreover alienated Palestinians.
Many West Financial institution Palestinians reacted to the conflict in Gaza by brazenly flying Hamas flags, usually alongside these of Fatah. Younger Palestinians residing within the walled and dismembered West Financial institution have lengthy been offended about being passive underdogs at all times on the receiving finish of this form of remedy.
Many have now positioned their hopes and expectations with those that rose, fought again and hit Israel onerous although Israel is a lot stronger.
Whereas this view might defy logic and appear surprising to outsiders, there isn’t a doubt that it’s real.
Even when Israel have been to attain its purpose of “ending” Hamas – a totally unrealistic prospect – many Palestinians would keep in mind Hamas because the one group which refused to take a seat passively and simply obtain blow after blow from Israel.
Regardless of the heavy casualties it has taken and the picture it has acquired within the West, Hamas most likely has extra causes to be glad than frightened.