There’s lots of hoopla about age today. However not for me. [GUNSHOT] See that man within the pink shirt? That’s Allan Lichtman, 77-year-old Allan Lichtman. And he’s racing within the qualifiers for the Senior Olympics. However there’s one other sort of race Allan’s simply as certified for. “Allan Lichtman.” “Allan Lichtman.” “Professor Allan Lichtman.” “Who has appropriately predicted—” “—virtually each presidential election since 1984.” And right now Allan Lichtman is able to inform us who’s going to win in 2024. [MUSIC PLAYING] You see, chances are you’ll suppose Allan’s only a jock. “Nicely, I used to be a steeplechase champion within the Nineteen Seventies.” “His title is Dr. Allan Lichtman.” However he’s really sort of a nerd. A historical past professor and a quiz present champion. Today, he’s on a unique sort of profitable streak. To make his presidential predictions, Allan’s mannequin ignores the polls and the pundits. “It hinges on 13 keys that I developed in 1981 with my geophysicist pal, Vladimir Keilis-Borok. It’s based mostly on 120 years of presidential election outcomes earlier than then.” Instructed you. He’s a nerd. Allan’s mannequin was one of many few that referred to as it for Trump in 2016. “Donald Trump goes to win.” And in 2020, Allan bought it proper once more. “Trump will lose the White Home. The race was tight, however the keys have been proper.” So let’s get to how these keys really work. “They’re 13 big-picture, true-false questions that faucet into the power and efficiency of the White Home get together. And solely two keys have something to do with the candidates.” However Allan, 2024 is an unprecedented election yr. Can your 13 keys actually name it proper? “The keys completely will work. They’re the fixed northern star of political prediction.” All proper. Time to run these keys and discover out who would be the subsequent president of the US, in line with Allan. “However first, let me develop into one thing a bit of extra snug.” [GUNSHOT] No. 1, the White Home get together gained Home seats between midterm elections. “The Democrats did higher than anticipated in 2022, however they nonetheless misplaced Home seats. So the hot button is false.” Keep in mind, a false secret is good for Trump. No. 2, the incumbency key. The sitting president is working for re-election. “Biden withdrew from the race, costing the Democrats this key. It’s false.” Wait, you’re saying it will have helped the Democrats if Biden stayed in? “If Biden stayed in, they’d have salvaged this one key. That’s all.” Hmm, OK. Transferring on, for now. No. 3, the White Home get together averted a major contest. “The Democrats lastly bought sensible and united overwhelmingly behind Vice President Harris. So the hot button is true.” A real key. That strikes Harris off the beginning block. No. 4, there’s no third-party challenger. “R.F.Okay. Jr. has dropped out of the race and no different third- get together candidate is wherever near the ten % polling threshold wanted to show this key. It’s true.” 4 keys in and it’s neck and neck. Let’s hold going. No. 5, the short-term financial system is robust. “Look, regardless of all of the free speak about a so-called vibecession, the financial system shouldn’t be in recession. So this secret is true.” No. 6, long-term financial development throughout this presidential time period has been no less than nearly as good because the final two phrases. “Progress throughout the Biden time period is much forward of development throughout the earlier two phrases. So this secret is clearly true.” No. 7, the White Home has made main modifications to nationwide coverage. “Rejoining the Paris Accords on local weather change, the CHIPS invoice, the infrastructure invoice, the Inflation Discount and local weather change invoice. Clearly, the hot button is true.” No. 8, there is no such thing as a sustained social unrest throughout the time period. “There have been sporadic protests, however nothing approaching the large, sustained social unrest wanted to show this key. So it’s true.” However colleges are simply going again to session. With new protests, couldn’t this key flip? “Sure, there are lots of protesters upset with Biden’s insurance policies within the Center East, however now, with Harris, not Biden, entrance and heart, that has dampened social unrest.” No. 9, the White Home is untainted by scandal. “Oh, my favourite key, the scandal key. And Republicans have been making an attempt for years to pin a scandal on President Biden and are available up empty. So the hot button is true.” However come on, Allan. Biden’s horrific debate efficiency, questions on his age, Hunter Biden, doesn’t any of that depend? “No. There must be no less than some bipartisan recognition of precise corruption that implicates the president himself and never a member of the family. So the important thing stays true.” So two false and 7 true up to now. Trying fairly good for the Democrats. We’ve 4 keys left, all of which must be false for Trump to have a path. No. 10, the incumbent get together candidate is charismatic. “It is a very excessive threshold key. It’s a must to be a once-in- a-generational, broadly inspirational candidate. Harris has not met that customary. So this secret is false.” No. 11, the challenger is uncharismatic. “Some folks suppose Donald Trump is a god, however he solely appeals to a slender base. In order that secret is true.” However wait, meaning — “The Democrats will maintain on to the White Home and Kamala Harris would be the subsequent president of the US.” However wait a sec, Allan. We nonetheless have two keys left. The overseas coverage keys? “You’re proper. Overseas coverage is hard, and these keys might flip. The Biden administration is deeply invested within the warfare in Gaza which is a humanitarian catastrophe with no sign of ending. However even when each overseas coverage keys flipped false, that might imply that there have been solely 5 adverse keys, which might not be sufficient for Donald Trump to regain the White Home.” So I suppose meaning you’re standing by your prediction. “Kamala Harris would be the subsequent president of the US. Not less than, that’s my prediction for this race. However the end result is as much as you. So get out and vote.” Nicely, I suppose that settles that race. However what in regards to the one we began with? “Nicely, I received some medals. I didn’t get harm. And I certified for the 2025 Nationwide Senior Olympics. Not unhealthy for a 77-year-old, huh?” [MUSIC PLAYING]