A brand new ballot has discovered that 96 p.c of Saudis consider that Arab international locations ought to reduce all ties with Israel to protest the battle in Gaza, posing a big problem to the Biden administration’s push for Saudi Arabia to ascertain diplomatic relations with Israel.
In response to the ballot, 40 p.c of Saudis expressed constructive attitudes towards Hamas, in contrast with 10 p.c in a ballot a number of months earlier than the battle started. Solely 16 p.c of Saudis surveyed within the ballot stated that Hamas ought to cease calling for the destruction of Israel to just accept the creation of Palestinian and Israeli states facet by facet — the “two-state answer” to the battle that the Saudi authorities publicly helps.
The poll, by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a typically pro-Israel analysis group, surveyed 1,000 Saudis from Nov. 14 to Dec. 6.
Whereas Saudi Arabia has grown extra autocratic over the previous eight years, analysts say that the nation’s de facto chief, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, should nonetheless take public opinion under consideration as he weighs selections.
Earlier than the battle — when the American-brokered efforts to succeed in a Saudi-Israel “normalization” deal gave the impression to be gaining tempo — American political analysts, U.S. officers and a few Saudi officers had asserted that youthful Saudis tended to care much less concerning the Palestinian trigger than earlier generations and may due to this fact be extra amenable to the concept of ties with Israel.
It’s unclear to what extent that was true, given the dearth of normal, dependable polling in Saudi Arabia — and contemplating the local weather of concern created by deepening levels of political repression underneath Prince Mohammed. Because the battle in Gaza started, vocal help for the Palestinian trigger and antipathy towards Israel has been widespread amongst Saudis of all ages.
The constructive views of Hamas that the ballot discovered, whereas nonetheless a minority, are notable on condition that Saudi residents can face prosecution for sympathizing with the Palestinian armed group, which launched the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel.
In September, shortly earlier than the battle started, Prince Mohammed stated in a tv interview that the talks between Saudi and American officers had been getting “closer every day” to a deal during which Saudi Arabia would acknowledge the state of Israel for the primary time.
Saudi officers had been pushing for major concessions from america — together with entry to American nuclear know-how and American safety ensures — in trade for normalizing ties with Israel, balancing a trade-off between potential public opposition to the deal and the political positive aspects it might deliver.
The Washington Institute ballot discovered that 95 p.c of Saudis didn’t consider that Hamas killed civilians in its attacks, which left round 1,200 folks lifeless in southern Israel, most of them civilians — together with many ladies and kids — in line with Israeli officers. It’s comparatively frequent for Arabs to consider that stories of civilian deaths are Israeli propaganda.
In distinction, the main target for many Saudis and different Arabs has been the Israeli navy’s siege of Gaza, together with a bombing marketing campaign that is among the most intense this century and that has killed round 20,000 Palestinians, in line with the well being authorities in Gaza.
Within the ballot, 87 p.c of Saudis stated that the battle had proven “that Israel is so weak and internally divided that it may be defeated some day.”
Simply 5 p.c agreed that Saudis ought to “present extra respect to the world’s Jews, and enhance our relationships with them.”
The ballot did discover, nevertheless, {that a} majority of Saudis supported a political answer to the Israeli-Palestinian battle over a navy strategy. Three-quarters stated that they supported the concept of an Arab diplomatic effort to make peace between the 2 sides.